Validation of alternative models in genetic evaluation of racing performance in North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters.

There have been several approaches to the estimation of breeding values of performance in trotters, and the objective of this study was to validate different alternatives for genetic evaluation of racing performance in the North Swedish and Norwegian cold-blooded trotters. The current bivariate approach with the traits racing status (RACE) and earnings (EARN) was compared with a threshold-linear animal model and the univariate alternative with the performance trait only. The models were compared based on cross-validation of standardized earnings, using mean-squared errors of prediction (MSEP) and the correlation between the phenotype (Y) and the estimated breeding value (EBV). Despite possible effects of selection, a rather high estimate of heritability of EARN was found in our univariate analysis. The genetic trend estimate for EARN was clearly higher in the bivariate specification than in the univariate model, as a consequence of the considerable size of estimated heritability of RACE and its high correlation with EARN (approximately 0.8). RACE is highly influenced by ancestry rather than the on-farm performance of the horse itself. Consequently, the use of RACE in the genetic analysis may inflate the genetic trend of EARN because of a double counting of pedigree information. Although, because of the higher predictive ability of the bivariate specification, the improved ranking of animals within a year-class and the inability to discriminate between models for genetic trend, we propose to base prediction of breeding values on the current bivariate model.