Severity: Warning
Message: Undefined array key "choices"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: strpos(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($haystack) of type string is deprecated
Filename: models/Detail_model.php
Line Number: 71
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File: /var/www/html/application/models/Detail_model.php
Line: 71
Function: strpos
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: insertAPISummary
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: str_replace(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($subject) of type array|string is deprecated
Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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Function: str_replace
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 255
Function: formatAIDetailSummary
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Undefined array key "choices"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 257
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 257
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 257
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 257
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 258
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 258
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 258
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 258
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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Line: 259
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: file_get_contents(https://...@gmail.com&api_key=61f08fa0b96a73de8c900d749fcb997acc09): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests
Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line Number: 143
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File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 143
Function: file_get_contents
File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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Function: simplexml_load_file_from_url
File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 3098
Function: getPubMedXML
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: pubMedSearch_Global
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: pubMedGetRelatedKeyword
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Message: Attempt to read property "Count" on bool
Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 3100
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Background: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.
Methodology/principal Findings: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively.
Conclusions/significance: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3279338 | PMC |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001470 | DOI Listing |
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