Predictive factors for fatality in pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infected patients.

Objective: To determine predictive fatality criteria based on clinical and laboratory findings on admission to hospital in patients diagnosed with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection.

Methods: The study was conducted at the School of Medicine, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data for hospitalized cases with a diagnosis of A (H1N1) virus infection between October 2009 and May 2010 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were divided into 2 groups: fatal (group I) and non-fatal (group II). The 2 group's demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were compared on admission.

Results: Ten (20%) of the 50 patients included in the study died. The average age of group I was significantly higher than that of the group II. No significant difference was observed between the groups in terms of underlying chronic diseases and pregnancy. Fever, phlegm, shortness of breath, tachypnea, cyanosis were observed at significantly higher levels in group I compared to group II. Serum hemoglobin, glucose, albumin levels, arterial oxygen saturation were significantly lower in group I compared to group II; aspartate transaminase, alanine aminotransferase, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, blood urea nitrogen levels, time between onset of symptoms and commencement of antiviral treatment were all significantly higher in group I.

Conclusion: This study shows that in addition to demographic characteristics and clinical findings, prognosis of patients with A (H1N1) virus infection can be determined beforehand with various laboratory tests. But these parameters, which can guide the clinician in the prior identification of potentially fatal A (H1N1) cases will contribute to the provision of supporting treatment and, when necessary, intensive care services for such patients.