Cognitive Chrono-Ethnography (CCE): a methodology for anticipating future user needs.

This paper proposes Cognitive Chrono-Ethnography (CCE), a new study methodology for understanding people's in situ behavior selections in daily life. People select their next behavior to maximize their satisfaction for a given behavioral needs. They appropriately coordinate available cognitive resources to make the best decisions by using their knowledge of past experiences and by processing input from the environment and individual intrinsic state. When a study field is specified, CCE starts by defining critical parameters for understanding people's behavior by considering the nature of behavior selection processes in the field in question, and then designing ethnographical field observations by taking into account the fact that their results will be described in terms of the specified critical parameters. The participants' behavior is recorded, followed by a series of structured retrospective interviews for the purpose of describing their present behavior and obtaining their history of behavioral development. Analysis of the interview results aid in developing models of present behavior selections and their chronological changes in the past. These models serve as defining future needs of persons who follow the same developing paths with a certain amount of delay, e.g., a few years of delay. This paper describes a CCE study of spectators of professional baseball games at a ballpark who have become frequent visitors to a baseball stadium in 5 years.