Background: The prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and sodium-based MELD variants in predicting survival following paracetamol overdose remains unclear.
Aim: To examine the prognostic accuracy of sodium-based MELD variants in paracetamol-induced acute liver injury compared with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score.
Methods: Retrospective analysis of 138 single time point paracetamol overdoses admitted to a tertiary liver centre. Individual laboratory samples were correlated with the corresponding clinical parameters in relation to time post-overdose, and the daily MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa, MESO, iMELD, UKELD, updated MELD and SOFA scores were calculated.
Results: Sixty-six (47.8%) patients developed hepatic encephalopathy, of whom 7 were transplanted and 21 died without liver transplantation. SOFA had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic for the prediction of spontaneous survival compared with MELD at both 72 (P = 0.024) and 96 (P = 0.017) h post-overdose. None of the sodium-based MELD variants improved the prognostic accuracy of MELD. A SOFA score >6 by 72 h or >7 by 96 h, post-overdose predicted death/transplantation with a negative predictive value of 96.9 (95% CI 90.2-99.4) and 98.8 (95% CI 93.6-99.9) respectively. SOFA and MELD had similar accuracy for predicting the development of hepatic encephalopathy (P = 0.493).
Conclusions: The SOFA score is superior to MELD in predicting spontaneous survival following paracetamol-induced acute liver injury. Modification of the MELD score to include serum sodium does not improve prognostic accuracy in this setting. SOFA may have potential as a quantitative triage marker following paracetamol overdose.
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