Application and performance of two stroke outcome prediction models in a chinese population.

Objective: To apply and examine the performance of 2 acute stroke outcome prediction models, the Six Simple Variable Model (SSV model) and the One-Year Mortality Model (OYM model), in patients in China who had either a cerebral infarction or a cerebral hemorrhage.

Design: An observational study that used both retrospective and prospective study methods.

Setting: A regional acute care facility in China.

Participants: Two hundred and forty-eight consecutive patients who had an acute stroke who were admitted to the hospital between October 2007 and March 2009.

Interventions: Not applicable.

Main Outcome Measures: Survival and daily activity independence 6 months after a stroke and 1-year mortality.

Results: The study sample had a mean age of 68.6 years (standard deviation, 11.1); 52.8% of the subjects were men, 66.5% had a cerebral infarction, and 33.5% had a cerebral hemorrhage. In the cohort, 107 patients (43.1%) achieved daily activity independence at 6-month follow-up, and 52 patients (21.0%) had died within 1 year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 (0.935-0.998) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.859 (0.766-0.952) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 6-month survival and daily activity independence with use of the SSV model. The area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (0.846-0.965) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.937 (0.904-0.988) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 1-year mortality when the OYM model was used.

Conclusions: Both the SSV and OYM prognostic models can be used for function and mortality outcome prediction for patients in China who have had a stroke. Variation existed in the precision of prediction between patients who had a cerebral infarction and those who had a cerebral hemorrhage. Other potential factors influencing functional recovery and mortality after stroke must be considered in outcome prediction.