[Study on surveillance and early-warning system of schistosomiasis in first phase of east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. III. Indexes of surveillance and early-warning and risk assessment].

Objective: To establish the index system of surveillance and early-warning on schistosomiasis and to provide the scientific basis for risk assessment and emergency plan in first phase of east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Methods: The Delphi method and the multidimensional synthetic evaluation were used in the evaluation of indexes of surveillance and early-warning on schistosomiasis in the east route of the project.

Results: There were 53 indexes evaluated in the index system, and among them, there were 3 first grade indexes, 10 second grade indexes and 40 third grade indexes. The indexes on Oncomelania snails were the most important. According to the habitation position of snails, the four grades on surveillance and early-warning of schistosomiasis were established in the east route. The grade I of the early-warning meant that snails crossed the first level of the pumping station. The grade II meant that snails crossed N 32 degrees 54'. The grade III meant that snails crossed N 33 degrees 03' or Jinhu pumping station. The grade IV meant that snails crossed N 33 degrees 15' or Hongze Station. Other 4 indexes on schistosome infection in people and livestock were confirmed as indicative indexes. According to the relationship among the indexes, the evaluation methods were determined on the risk of schistosomiasis transmission.

Conclusions: The index system of surveillance and early-warning and the methods of risk assessment of schistosomiasis have been confirmed in first phase of east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The primary index is related to snails and the supplementary is related to schistosome infection in people and livestock in the system.