Ten-year diabetes incidence in 1046 HIV-infected patients started on a combination antiretroviral treatment.

Objective: To evaluate the incidence and determinants of diabetes in a cohort of HIV-infected adults initiated with combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) in 1997-1999 and followed up to 2009.

Design: Prospective study of 1046 patients at 47 French clinical sites.

Methods: Potential determinants of diabetes occurrence, defined by confirmed increased glycemia and/or initiation of antidiabetic treatment, were assessed by a proportional hazards model, including time-updated metabolic parameters and ART exposure.

Results: Among the cohort, representing 7846 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 54% received indinavir, 75% stavudine and 52% didanosine. Overall, 111 patients developed diabetes, with an incidence of 14.1/1000 PYFU (14.6 in men, 12.6 in women). Incidence peaked in 1999-2000 (23.2/1000 PYFU) and decreased thereafter. The incidence of diabetes was associated [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), all P<0.02] with older age (hazard ratio = 2.13 when 40-49 years, hazard ratio = 3.63 when ≥50 years), overweight (hazard ratio = 1.91 for a BMI 25-29 kg/m(2), hazard ratio = 2.85 >30 kg/m(2)), waist-to-hip ratio (hazard ratio = 3.87 for ≥0.97 male/0.92 female), time-updated lipoatrophy (hazard ratio = 2.14) and short-term exposure to indinavir (0-1 year: hazard ratio = 2.53), stavudine (0-1 year: hazard ratio = 2.56, 1-2 years: hazard ratio = 2.65) or didanosine (2-3 years: hazard ratio = 3.16). Occurrence of diabetes was not associated with HIV-related markers, hepatitis C, hypertension or family history of diabetes. Insulin resistance was predictive for incident diabetes.

Conclusions: In this nationwide cohort, followed for 10 years after cART initiation, diabetes incidence peaked in 1990-2000, was markedly higher than that reported for European uninfected or other HIV-infected populations (4-6/1000 PYFU) and linked with age and adiposity. Adiposity and glycemic markers should be monitored in aging HIV-infected patients.