A simple tool to identify infants at high risk of mild to severe childhood asthma: the persistent asthma predictive score.

Background: Recurrent wheezing in infants is a recognized risk factor for the development of childhood asthma. We sought to develop an easy-to-use persistent asthma predictive score (PAPS) in a population of young recurrent wheezers.

Methods: We retrospectively studied clinical and biological data of infants under 2 years of age presenting recurrent wheezing and evaluated current asthma at 6 years of age using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire. Multivariate analysis was performed to select predictive variables to generate a PAPS. The score was then tested on another cohort for independent validation.

Results: Two hundred infants were included in the cohort used to create the PAPS, and 227 in the validation cohort. In the first population, 47% of the children had developed asthma at 6 years of age, including 33% with mild to severe persistent asthma. Three parameters independently predicted persistent asthma: family history of asthma, personal atopic dermatitis, and multiple allergen sensitizations. Based on these variables, the PAPS showed 42% sensitivity, 90% specificity, 67% positive predictive value, and 76% negative predictive value for the prediction of persistent asthma. It was able to discriminate future persistent asthmatic from nonfuture persistent asthmatic children, with an accuracy of 74% in the initial population and 67% in the validation population.

Conclusions: The PAPS, based on three easy-to-obtain variables, could help the physician in clinical practice to identify infants at high risk for persistent childhood asthma, and thus better evaluate the need for secondary preventive measures.