Analysis of prognostic variables, development of predictive models, and stratification of risk groups in surgically treated FIGO early-stage (IA-IIA) carcinoma cervix.

Objectives: The objectives of the study were to evaluate clinicopathologic prognostic variables in surgically treated International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology early-stage (IA-IIA) cervical cancer, develop prognostic models, and note the role of adjuvant treatment, patterns of failure, and salvage survival (SS) in each group.

Methods: Records of 542 patients who received primary surgical treatment for International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology (IA-IIA) cervical cancer were reviewed. Ninety-eight patients who relapsed after primary treatment were identified and matched for stage and age with a control group. Clinicopathologic prognostic variables were identified and used to develop a prognostic model with 3 risk groups for overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS). The roles of adjuvant treatment, relapse sites, and SS were also noted in the groups.

Results: The 5-year OS was 70% for the whole group, 97% in the control group, and 44% in the relapse group. There was a statistically significant decrease in survival in patients 70 years or older, those with positive lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI), and in patients with positive LVSI and increasing depth of invasion in both univariate and multivariate analyses (P < 0.001). Positive lymph node status and tumor size of 31 mm or greater showed only a trend toward lower OS and RFS, respectively, in multivariate analysis. An additive model using regression coefficients from multivariate Cox model stratified patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Relapse-free survival and OS were significantly different in all 3 groups (P < 0.001). Salvage survival was better in low-risk group relative to medium- and high-risk groups, (P = 0.05) as well as between the medium- and high-risk groups (P = 0.03). More distant and locoregional relapses were noted in the medium- and high-risk groups, and SS was better with a local versus locoregional or distant recurrence (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: In this study, age 70 years or older and positive LVSI were found to be statistically significant prognostic factors for both OS and RFS. Positive lymph nodes status showed only a trend toward lower OS. Positive LVSI status had significant adverse prognostic effects on RFS and OS in tumors with increasing depth of invasion. Additive prognostic model helps identify predictors and stratify patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups for survival. Many of these factors can be identified preoperatively and may assist in decision to offer primary surgery or alternative therapies in patients with potentially operable cervix cancer. Prognostic model can be used as a tool to design clinical trials and select the group of patients who are the appropriate target for a trial.