Developmental trajectories of body mass index in early childhood and their risk factors: an 8-year longitudinal study.

Objectives: To identify groups of children with distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index (BMI), calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared, between the ages of 5 months and 8 years and identify early-life risk factors that distinguish children in an atypically elevated BMI trajectory group.

Design: Prospective cohort study.

Setting: Families with a child born between October 1997 and July 1998 in the province of Quebec, Canada.

Participants: A representative sample of children (N = 2120) selected through birth registries for the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development. Children for whom BMI data were available for at least 5 time points were retained in the present study (n = 1957).

Main Exposures: Early-life factors putatively associated with BMI, assessed by maternal report.

Outcome Measure: Group-based trajectories of children's BMI, identified with a semiparametric modeling method from raw BMI values at each age.

Results: Three trajectories of BMI were identified: low-stable (54.5% of children), moderate (41.0%), and high-rising (4.5%). The high-rising group was characterized by an increasing average BMI, which exceeded international cutoff values for obesity by age 8 years. Two maternal risk factors were associated with the high-rising group as compared with the low-stable and moderate groups combined: maternal BMI (odds ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-4.54 for maternal overweight and 6.33; 3.82-11.85 for maternal obesity) and maternal smoking during pregnancy (2.28; 1.49-4.04).

Conclusions: Children continuing on an elevated BMI trajectory leading to obesity in middle childhood can be distinguished from children on a normative BMI trajectory as early as age 3.5 years. Important and preventable risk factors for childhood obesity are in place before birth.