Changes in causes of death and risk of cancer in Danish patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease.

Background: With the improved prognosis in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), causes of death and the risk of cancer might have changed. This was investigated in a Danish population with ADPKD and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2008.

Methods: Data were retrieved from three Danish national registries and a total of 823 patients were identified of which 431 had died during the study period. The 16 years were divided into two 8-year periods and the causes of death were divided into six categories: cancer, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, infection, other and unknown.

Results: Cardiovascular disease was the major cause of death. A multivariate competing risk model comparing the two 8-year periods, adjusted for age at ESRD, gender and treatment modality, showed that deaths from cardiovascular disease decreased by 35% [hazard ratios (HR) 0.65, P=0.008] and deaths from cerebrovascular disease decreased by 69% (HR 0.31, P=0.0003) from the first to the second time period. There were no significant changes between the time periods in death from cancer, infection, other or unknown. From the first to the second 8-year interval, the prevalence of cancer increased by 35% (P=0.0002) while the cancer incidence was stable.

Conclusions: In Danish patients with ADPKD and ESRD, there was a significant reduction in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths from 1993 to 2008. The prevalence of cancer increased without significant change in cancer incidence or deaths from cancer.