On the use of mean groundwater age, life expectancy and capture probability for defining aquifer vulnerability and time-of-travel zones for source water protection.

Protection and sustainability of water supply wells requires the assessment of vulnerability to contamination and the delineation of well capture zones. Capture zones, or more generally, time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific contaminant travel times, are most commonly delineated using advective particle tracking. More recently, the capture probability approach has been used in which a probability of capture of P=1 is assigned to the well and the growth of a probability-of-capture plume is tracked backward in time using an advective-dispersive transport model. This approach accounts for uncertainty due to local-scale heterogeneities through the use of macrodispersion. In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to capture zone delineation by applying the concept of mean life expectancy E (time remaining before being captured by the well), and we show how life expectancy E is related to capture probability P. Either approach can be used to delineate time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific travel times, as well as the ultimate capture zone. The related concept of mean groundwater age A (time since recharge) can also be applied in the context of defining the vulnerability of a pumped aquifer. In the same way as capture probability, mean life expectancy and groundwater age account for local-scale uncertainty or unresolved heterogeneities through macrodispersion, which standard particle tracking neglects. The approach is tested on 2D and 3D idealized systems, as well as on several watershed-scale well fields within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.