Risk of development of diabetes mellitus in Chinese women with persistently impaired glucose tolerance after gestational diabetes.

Objectives: To estimate the cumulative incidence for the development of diabetes mellitus in Chinese women with persistently impaired glucose tolerance after gestational diabetes, and evaluate putative risk factors.

Design: Historical cohort study.

Setting: A regional hospital in Hong Kong.

Patients: Women with postpartum impaired glucose tolerance (as confirmed by a 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test 6 weeks after delivery) seen between January 2000 and December 2006.

Results: After a mean follow-up period of 52 (standard deviation, 22; range, 12-106) months, 47 (20%) of the 238 women converted to diabetes mellitus. Concomitant postpartum impaired fasting plasma glucose levels increased the risk of future diabetes mellitus by 3.5-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.7-7.0; P=0.001) when compared to those with postpartum impaired glucose tolerance only. Based on multivariate analysis, only antepartum and postpartum fasting plasma glucose levels predicted future development of diabetes mellitus. At 1 year after delivery in 95/159 (60%) of the women, glucose tolerance regressed to normal, while in only 9/159 (6%) it progressed to diabetes mellitus. At this stage, 29% of those with impaired glucose regulation (impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose or both) compared to 2% of those whose glucose tolerance reverted to normal developed diabetes mellitus upon subsequent follow-up (P<0.001). In all, 24/159 (15%) fulfilled the definition of metabolic syndrome and its presence was associated with 4.7-fold increased risk of future diabetes mellitus (95% confidence interval, 1.7-13.4; P=0.004).

Conclusions: Women with persistent postpartum impaired glucose tolerance after gestational diabetes have a high risk of developing diabetes mellitus. However, a significant proportion of these women regress to normal glucose tolerance 1 year after delivery, and their risk of progression to diabetes mellitus is lower than those with persistent impaired glucose regulation. Therefore, women with a history of gestational diabetes, particularly those with persistent glucose intolerance 6 weeks and 1 year after delivery, should have regular surveillance for the development of diabetes mellitus.