A graphical method for practical and informative identifiability analyses of physiological models: a case study of insulin kinetics and sensitivity.

Background: Derivative based a-priori structural identifiability analyses of mathematical models can offer valuable insight into the identifiability of model parameters. However, these analyses are only capable of a binary confirmation of the mathematical distinction of parameters and a positive outcome can begin to lose relevance when measurement error is introduced. This article presents an integral based method that allows the observation of the identifiability of models with two-parameters in the presence of assay error.

Methods: The method measures the distinction of the integral formulations of the parameter coefficients at the proposed sampling times. It can thus predict the susceptibility of the parameters to the effects of measurement error. The method is tested in-silico with Monte Carlo analyses of a number of insulin sensitivity test applications.

Results: The method successfully captured the analogous nature of identifiability observed in Monte Carlo analyses of a number of cases including protocol alterations, parameter changes and differences in participant behaviour. However, due to the numerical nature of the analyses, prediction was not perfect in all cases.

Conclusions: Thus although the current method has valuable and significant capabilities in terms of study or test protocol design, additional developments would further strengthen the predictive capability of the method. Finally, the method captures the experimental reality that sampling error and timing can negate assumed parameter identifiability and that identifiability is a continuous rather than discrete phenomenon.