Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p < 0.05). We then examine seasonal patterns of rotavirus predicted across a range of different birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2011.0062 | DOI Listing |
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr
January 2025
Division of HIV Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, US at the time this research was undertaken. Current affiliation: Manhattan Associates, Atlanta GA.
Background: In 2019, there were an estimated 1.2 million persons with HIV (PWH) and 35,100 new infections in the United States. The HIV care continuum has a large influence on transmission dynamics.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBull Math Biol
January 2025
Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.
Mosquitoes are important vectors for the transmission of some major infectious diseases of humans, i.e., malaria, dengue, West Nile Virus and Zika virus.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFR Soc Open Sci
January 2025
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
The 2019 emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its rapid spread created a public health emergency of international concern. However, the impact of the pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa, as documented in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, appears far lower than in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Characterization of the transmission dynamics is critical for understanding how SARS-CoV-2 spreads and the true scale of the pandemic.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Infect Public Health
January 2025
Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, Goyang, Republic of Korea. Electronic address:
Background: This study examines Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening scenarios to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets (incidence ≤5 per 100,000, mortality ≤2 per 100,000) and assesses their timeframes and cost-effectiveness.
Methods: A closed cohort model of Koreans aged 30-79 in 2020 projected HCV incidence and mortality over 20 years. Economic evaluations used a dynamic transmission model, considering prevalent and annual incident cases.
PLOS Glob Public Health
January 2025
Centre for Vaccines and Immunology, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Eight years after WHO adopted a resolution to eliminate hepatitis B by the year 2030, the disease remains a global public health concern, with vertical transmission of HBV being a major obstacle to this goal. Our study aimed to determine the HBV infection status of pregnant women in South Africa at a national level to evaluate the risk of vertical transmission and provide evidence for public health decision-making. We conducted HBsAg testing on 1,942 HIV-uninfected and 2,312 HIV-infected pregnant women from South Africa's public health sector in 2017, followed by HBeAg testing on HBsAg-positive samples.
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