This paper presents a mathematical model for cholera epidemics which comprises seasonality, loss of host immunity, and control mechanisms acting to reduce cholera transmission. A collection of data related to cholera disease allows us to show that outbreaks in endemic areas are subject to a resonant behavior, since the intrinsic oscillation period of the disease (∼1 year) is synchronized with the annual contact rate variation. Moreover, we argue that the short period of the host immunity may be associated to secondary peaks of incidence observed in some regions (a bimodal pattern). Finally, we explore some possible mechanisms of cholera control, and analyze their efficiency. We conclude that, besides mass vaccination--which may be impracticable--improvements in sanitation system and food/personal hygiene are the most effective ways to prevent an epidemic.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-011-9652-6 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Cholera in Nigeria: A review of outbreaks, trends, contributing factors, and public health responses.
Niger Med J
January 2025
Department of Medical Laboratory Services, Federal Medical Center, Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, Nigeria.
Cholera remains a significant public health challenge in Nigeria, with recurrent outbreaks exacerbated by inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure, as well as conflict and displacement. This review examines cholera outbreaks in Nigeria from 2010 to 2024, analyzing epidemiological trends, contributing factors, and public health responses. Seasonal peaks during periods of heavy rainfall and flooding have consistently facilitated transmission, with Northern regions disproportionately affected due to poor infrastructure and ongoing conflicts.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFCase-area targeted interventions and free chlorine residual in household drinking water: An observational cohort study during a cholera outbreak in Northeast Nigeria.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
January 2025
Center for Humanitarian Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Background: Cholera outbreaks are surging worldwide. Growing research supports case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households, as an effective strategy in cholera outbreak control, particularly in humanitarian settings. While research exists on individual CATI interventions, research gaps exist on outcomes of integrated interventions during CATI responses.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMultistate cholera outbreak in Sudan amidst ongoing armed conflict, 2023-2024.
Int J Infect Dis
January 2025
Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network.
In 2023, Sudan was affected by a major cholera outbreak affected 10 states amidst armed conflict that severely disrupted the health services. This study aimed to describe the magnitude, pattern, and trend (2023-2024) of cholera outbreak in Sudan across different states. Cholera outbreak caused significant morbidity and mortality facilitated the armed conflict that hampered the response by damaging infrastructure, displacing people, and disrupting healthcare services.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFExploring the burden of cholera in the WHO African region: patterns and trends from 2000 to 2023 cholera outbreak data.
BMJ Glob Health
January 2025
Emergency Preparedness and Response Programme, Brazzaville, Congo.
Introduction: Cholera outbreaks remain persistent in the WHO African region, with an increased trend in recent years. This study analyses actual drivers of cholera including correlations with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) indicators, and climate change trends.
Methods: This was a cross-sectional descriptive and analytic study.
An assessment of the progress made in the implementation of the regional framework for cholera prevention and control in the WHO African region.
BMJ Glob Health
January 2025
Emergency Preparedness and Response, WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.
High-burden cholera outbreaks, spreading beyond the traditional cholera-endemic countries, have been reported since 2021 in the WHO African region. Member states in the region have committed to the global goal of cholera elimination by 2030. To track progress towards this goal, WHO-African countries adopted a regional cholera prevention and control framework in 2018.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!