Learning lessons from drugs that have recently entered the market.

Which projects in the drug discovery field are most likely to be successful? In this article, I provide guidelines for answering this question by examining recent drug market entrants in detail, in particular their route of administration, trial design, novelty, therapeutic target and toxicities. I identify targets, trials and organizations as the key issues that are currently leading to the poor productivity in the pharmaceutical industry. Here, I outline some solutions and reasons for optimism, and suggest that the key determinants for success in drug discovery can be defined by studying recently launched drugs.