N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality and MACE after major vascular surgery in medium-term follow-up.

Objective: Recent interest has focussed on the role of biomarkers to predict outcome in patients undergoing major vascular surgery. We wished to determine if pre- and postoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) levels could predict all-cause mortality (ACM; primary aim) and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) (secondary aim) in the medium-term follow-up in patients who have undergone elective major vascular surgery.

Method: Patients who underwent major elective vascular surgery (n = 136) were followed up for up to 2 years. ACM and first MACE episode were identified from the case notes and the patient management system database of the hospital intranet.

Results: One patient was lost to follow-up. In the mean follow-up of 654 days, 27 (20%) died and 23 (17%) patients suffered a MACE. Receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis showed that a pre-operative NT-pro-BNP level with a cut-off of 359 pg ml(-1) had a sensitivity and specificity of 73% each (area under the curve (AUC) 80%, p < 0.001) in predicting ACM and sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 71% (AUC 75%, p < 0.001) to detect a MACE. The overall 2-year survival rate was 84%, 93% in the <359 pg ml(-1) group and 68% in the ≥359 pg ml(-1) group (p < 0.001). Following multivariate analysis, pre-operative NT-pro-BNP at a value of ≥359 pg ml(-1) remained an independent predictor of ACM (odds ratio 3.6 (confidence interval (CI): 1.6-8.1), p = 0.002) Postoperative NT-pro-BNP was a predictor of mortality but not a MACE.

Conclusion: This study has shown that pre-operative NT-pro-BNP is an independent predictor of ACM and MACE on medium-term follow-up.