Incidence of diabetes in Asian-Indian subjects: a five year follow-up study from Bangladesh.

Aims: To determine the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its risk factors. Further, to examine the effect of relative changes in obesity (BMI and waist circumference).

Methods: A sample of 2011 non-diabetic adults aged 20 and above were randomly selected and followed from 1999 to 2004. Fasting blood glucose including biophysical and anthropometric measures was measured.

Results: The overall 5 year cumulative incidence of diabetes was 16.4 per 1000 person-years and 65.1 per 1000 person-years in those with impaired fasting glucose adjusted for age and sex. Among obesity measures, only waist >85in. increased the risk for diabetes in males (RR=3.0). Relative changes stratified by loss in BMI and WC ≥5% or gain of BMI >15% from the baseline values for men were significantly associated with the incidental cases of diabetes. Increased hip circumference for men was significantly associated with a protective effect while an opposite association was observed for women.

Conclusion: Relative change in both loss and excessive gain of BMI were risks for increased diabetes. Targeted intervention in those with impaired fasting blood glucose will expectedly reduce the incidental cases. Further investigations are needed for non obese related diabetes in Asian Indian subjects.