Serum phosphate and outcome at one year after deceased donor renal transplantation.

Traditional risk factors do not adequately explain the increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease in renal patients. This study considered a "non-traditional" risk factor, serum phosphate and outcome in renal transplant recipients. Data from 377 patients who received a first deceased donor renal transplant between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2008, were recorded; 10% (n=38) had diabetes, 16.7% (n=63) were smokers, and 18.8% (n=71) had a history of vascular disease. Three hundred and thirty-three patients were alive at the time of the analysis. Survivors were significantly younger, less likely to be smokers or diabetic, and had a higher estimated glomerular filtration rate at one yr post-transplantation. Serum phosphate was significantly lower in these patients (0.95 ± 0.23 vs. 1.04 ± 0.26, p = 0.031). Analysis of recipient survival, stratified by serum phosphate at one yr post-transplant, revealed that serum phosphate > 1.11 mMol/L was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (p=0.006). Serum phosphate between 0.9 and 1.11 mMol/L afforded the best outcome. In multivariate analysis, serum phosphate remained a significant predictor of mortality (p=0.016). Serum phosphate at one yr after transplant seems to have a J-shaped relationship with mortality, and this effect is independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.