Rheumatic heart disease and risk of incident heart failure among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Little is known about the association of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) with incident heart failure (HF) among older adults.

Design: Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort study.

Methods: Of the 4,751 community-dwelling adults ≥ 65 years, free of prevalent HF at baseline, 140 had RHD, defined as self-reported physician-diagnosed RHD along with echocardiographic evidence of left-sided valvular disease. Propensity scores for RHD, estimated for each of the 4,751 participants, were used to assemble a cohort of 720, in which 124 and 596 participants with and without RHD, respectively, were balanced on 62 baseline characteristics.

Results: Incident HF developed in 33% and 22% of matched participants with and without RHD, respectively, during 13 years of follow-up (hazard ratio when RHD was compared to no-RHD 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.28; P = 0.008). Pre-match unadjusted, multivariable-adjusted, and propensity-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for RHD-associated incident heart failure were 2.04 (1.54-2.71; P < 0.001), 1.32 (1.02-1.70; P = 0.034), and 1.55 (1.14-2.11; P = 0.005), respectively. RHD was not associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.82-1.45; P = 0.568).

Conclusion: RHD is an independent risk factor for incident HF among community-dwelling older adults free of HF, but has no association with mortality.