[Estimation and prediction of the epidemic situation of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Jiangsu province].

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate and predict the AIDS epidemic situation in Jiangsu province by using a software named Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and then to provide accurate information for making control plans and conducting interventions.

Methods: Date were obtained from the comprehensively monitored sentinels of AIDS and venereal diseases (Data were from 28 national monitored stations and 52 provincial stations. From 2003 to 2009, a total of 10 730 000 people had been monitored) as well as project survey and laboratory tests. EPP epidemic model was employed to analyze the prevalence and to predict future epidemic situations.

Results: A total of 830 000 and 1 020 000 people were monitored in 2003 and 2004 respectively, and 8 880 000 more people were monitored in the following 5 years. By the end of 2009, a total of 4103 HIV infection cases had been reported, among which 918 people were diagnosed with AIDS and 432 died. Since 2003, the cases infected through IDU had decreased from 66.84% (262/392) to 16.40% (142/868). However, the cases infected through sex contact had increased from 21.68% (85/392) to 77.40% (672/868). Among these cases, homosexual transmission and heterosexual transmission accounted for 39.10% (339/868) and 38.30% (333/868) respectively. It was estimated that there would be 14 290 HIV/AIDS cases in 2011 which is 18.10% (2191/12 099) higher than that in 2009. The estimated HIV infection rate would be 0.02%.

Conclusion: EPP prediction showed the AIDS epidemic situation in Jiangsu province had an ascendant trend and the AIDS epidemic situation had demonstrated rapid growth. Therefore, it is necessary to take effective preventive measures to control the spread of AIDS.