Lifetime risk and duration of chronic disease and disability.

Objective: To estimate risk and duration of chronic conditions and disability for all older Americans and demographic subgroups.

Method: Analysis of National Mortality Followback Survey data for survivors to age 65 to project lifetime risk and duration of selected conditions and examine their relationship with life expectancy and disability.

Results: For women, Blacks, and non-Blacks, arthritis is most common and has the longest average duration, followed by diabetes and COPD. Among men, diabetes duration is longest, followed by COPD. Disability risk is elevated for all conditions studied, except heart attack. Those very overweight most of life and persons with dementia have the greatest disability risk and relatively long disability durations. Among women, those very overweight most of life can expect to die 3.1 years sooner and have above average disability duration.

Discussion: Findings provide new information about the relative burden of common chronic diseases among all older Americans and major subgroups.