Transition and remission in adolescents at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

Background: Future success of early intervention initiatives to prevent the onset of psychosis will rely on the validity of methods to predict clinical outcome. Proper identification is particularly essential for young adolescents, as psychotic-like symptoms are often transitory during this period and mislabeling can lead to early stigmatization and unnecessary treatment. This article presents results from a prospective, naturalistic 2-year follow-up study of a cohort of young adolescents putatively at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis.

Methods: Seventy-two adolescents between 12 and 18years were recruited, fulfilling either UHR criteria or the basic symptom-based criterion cognitive disturbances (COGDIS). Incidence of transition as well as the remission rate from UHR status was calculated. Individuals who made a transition (UHR-P) were compared to those who did not (UHR-NP) and to those who remitted (UHR-R) on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results: Fifty-seven UHR individuals completed the 2-year follow-up assessment. The confirmed transition rate was 15.6% and 35.3% still met UHR criteria. The remaining 49.1% had remitted from an initial UHR status. The UHR subgroups did not differ on socio-demographic or clinical variables at baseline.

Conclusions: Half of young adolescents meeting UHR criteria continue to experience prodromal or psychotic symptoms after 2 years. However, they are at least three times more likely to have remitted from their UHR status than to have made a transition to psychosis. In addition, baseline characteristics are not indicative of clinical outcome at follow-up. Our results emphasize the need for further improvement and stratification of relative risk factors for psychosis.