Unlabelled: New rotavirus vaccines show promise to reduce the burden of severe diarrhea among children in developing countries. We present an age-specific dynamic rotavirus model to assess the effect of rotavirus vaccination in Kyrgyzstan, a country in Central Asia that is eligible for funds from the GAVI Alliance. A routine rotavirus vaccination program at 95% coverage and 54% effectiveness against severe infection is estimated to lead to a 56% reduction in rotavirus-associated deaths and a 50% reduction in hospital admissions, while outpatient visits and homecare episodes would decrease by 52% compared to baseline levels after 5 years of intervention. A 10% reduction in vaccine efficacy due to incomplete 3-dose regimen is estimated to increase the numbers of severe cases by 6-8%. Herd immunity was found to account for 1% or less of averted cases of severe gastroenteritis, while an extra 7-8% of all rotavirus infections would be avoided due to reduced transmission.
Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines would reduce the burden of rotavirus disease substantially, but the results are sensitive to delay in age-appropriate vaccination.
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