Prediction of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in a large Greek population.

Purpose: We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of anthropometric measurements and self-reported symptoms of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) in a large number of not yet diagnosed or treated patients. Commonly used clinical indices were used to derive a prediction formula that could identify patients at low and high risk for OSAS.

Methods: Two thousand six hundred ninety patients with suspected OSAS were enrolled. We obtained weight; height; neck, waist, and hip circumference; and a measure of subjective sleepiness (Epworth sleepiness scale--ESS) prior to diagnostic polysomnography. Excessive daytime sleepiness severity (EDS) was coded as follows: 0 for ESS ≤ 3 (normal), 1 for ESS score 4-9 (normal to mild sleepiness), 2 for score 10-16 (moderate to severe sleepiness), and 3 for score >16 (severe sleepiness). Multivariate linear and logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and derive a prediction formula.

Results: Neck circumference (NC) in centimeters, body mass index (BMI) in kilograms per square meter, sleepiness as a code indicating EDS severity, and gender as a constant were significant predictors for AHI. The derived formula was: AHIpred = NC × 0.84 + EDS × 7.78 + BMI × 0.91 - [8.2 × gender constant (1 or 2) + 37]. The probability that this equation predicts AHI greater than 15 correctly was 78%.

Conclusions: Gender, BMI, NC, and sleepiness were significant clinical predictors of OSAS in Greek subjects. Such a prediction formula can play a role in prioritizing patients for PSG evaluation, diagnosis, and initiation of treatment.