Cosmetic surgery volume and its correlation with the major US stock market indices.

Background: As a consumer-driven industry, cosmetic plastic surgery is subject to ebbs and flows as the economy changes. There have been many predictions about the short, intermediate, and long-term impact on cosmetic plastic surgery as a result of difficulties in the current economic climate, but no studies published in the literature have quantified a direct correlation.

Objectives: The authors investigate a possible correlation between cosmetic surgery volume and the economic trends of the three major US stock market indices.

Methods: A volume analysis for the time period from January 1992 to October 2008 was performed (n = 7360 patients, n = 8205 procedures). Four cosmetic procedures-forehead lift (FL), rhytidectomy (Rh), breast augmentation (BA), and liposuction (Li)-were chosen; breast reduction (BRd), breast reconstruction (BRc), and carpal tunnel release (CTR) were selected for comparison. Case volumes for each procedure and fiscal quarter were compared to the trends of the S&P 500, Dow Jones (DOW), and NASDAQ (NASD) indices. Pearson correlation statistics were used to evaluate a relationship between the market index trends and surgical volume. P values <.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: Three of the four cosmetic surgery procedures investigated (Rh, n = 1540; Li, n = 1291; BA, n = 1959) demonstrated a direct (ie, positive) statistical correlation to all three major market indices. FL (n =312) only correlated to the NASD (P = .021) and did not reach significance with the S&P 500 (P = .077) or DOW (P = .14). BRd and BRc demonstrated a direct correlation to two of the three stock market indices, whereas CTR showed an inverse (ie, negative) correlation to two of the three indices.

Conclusions: This study, to our knowledge, is the first to suggest a direct correlation of four cosmetic and two reconstructive plastic surgery procedures to the three major US stock market indices and further emphasizes the importance of a broad-based plastic surgery practice in times of economic recession.