Vitamin D and cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Background: Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OH-D) has recently been linked to cardiovascular diseases. This review summarizes evidence from prospective studies evaluating the prognostic value of 25-OH-D for cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality.

Method: A systematic literature search in EMBASE and Pubmed-Medline databases was performed until November 2009. Prospective studies published in English were selected reporting estimates for the association of 25-OH-D with primary or secondary cardiovascular event incidence or mortality in the general population or subjects with prevalent cardiovascular disease. Pooled risk estimators were derived by meta-analysis using a random effects model approach.

Results: Four incidence and five independent mortality studies were included. Two incidence and three mortality studies reported a two- to five-fold risk increase for both outcomes in subjects with lower 25-OH-D, while the others did not detect a significant association. Meta-analysis supported the existence of an inverse association.

Conclusion: Data from prospective investigations suggest an inverse association between 25-OH-D and cardiovascular risk. However, given the heterogeneity and small number of longitudinal studies, more research is needed to corroborate a potential prognostic value of 25-OH-D for cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality.