Health care consequences of demographic changes in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania: projected case numbers for age-related diseases up to the year 2020, based on the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP).

Background: The population in the German federal state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is growing older. A resulting rise in age-related diseases will likely lead to a greater need for medical care, even though the population as a whole is declining. The predicted number of patients affected by these diseases varies from one district to another because of local differences in demographic trends.

Methods: Case numbers were forecasted on the basis of representative data on the morbidity from chronic diseases, which were derived from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), the conjoint cancer registry of the East German federal states (GKR), and a study on dementia morbidity. These data were combined with demographic prognoses for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and its rural and urban districts up to the year 2020.

Results: The largest increases in case numbers are predicted for dementia (+91.1%), myocardial infarction (+28.3%), diabetes mellitus (+21.4%), and incident colon carcinoma (+31.0%; all figures are expressed in relation to the year 2005 as a baseline). The predicted changes in case numbers vary widely from one district to another.

Conclusion: All of the German federal states located in the former East Germany are likely to experience similar developments to those predicted for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, as will many rural areas of the former West Germany, in which a demographic transition is already evident. Because of the predicted rise in the number of patients, new health care concepts will have to be rapidly developed, implemented, and evaluated in order to ensure that comprehensive medical care will be delivered where it is needed.