Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process.

Objectives: We used a simulation model to analyze whether the Healthy People 2010 goal of reducing smoking prevalence from the current 19.8% rate to 12% by 2010 could be accomplished by increasing quit attempts, increasing the use of treatments, or increasing the effectiveness of treatment.

Methods: We expanded on previous versions of the tobacco control simulation model SimSmoke to assess the effects of an increase in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness to reduce smoking prevalence. In the model, we considered increases in each of these parameters individually and in combination.

Results: Individually, 100% increases in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness reduced the projected 2020 prevalence to 13.9%, 16.7%, and 15.9%, respectively. With a combined 100% increase in all components, the goal of a 12% adult smoking prevalence could be reached by 2012.

Conclusions: If we are to come close to reaching Healthy People 2010 goals in the foreseeable future, we must not only induce quit attempts but also increase treatment use and effectiveness. Simulation models provide a useful tool for evaluating the potential to reach public health targets.