[Development of evaluation tool for the risk level of abnormal glucose metabolism morbidity in middle-aged and elder populations].

Objective: To develop the evaluation tool for the risk level of abnormal glucose metabolism morbidity in the middle-aged and elder populations.

Methods: By the stratified cluster sampling method, a survey was conducted in middle-aged and elder populations aged 40 - 70 years old in urban and rural areas of Chengdu during April-November 2008. The parameters included blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, blood glucose after oral administration of 75 g glucose, blood lipid, blood uric acid, height, body weight and waistline, etc. A total of 5205 valid copies of questionnaires were obtained. A discriminant analysis and a multifactorial logistic regression analysis were conducted. The quantitative scoring system was established and the ROC analysis conducted to screen the boundary point of the quantitative scoring system. The discriminant performance of simple scoring model was conducted in 336 subjects for physical examination.

Results: The accuracies of discriminant analysis in male and female models were 79.04% and 81.35% respectively. The simple male scoring mode included the following eight parameters: age, physical work intensity, parental history of diabetes mellitus, sibling's history of diabetes mellitus, BMI index, existing abdominal obesity and history of hypertension. The simple female scoring mode included the following eight parameters: age, physical work intensity, physical training, parental history of diabetes mellitus, sibling's history of diabetes mellitus, BMI index, existing abdominal obesity, history of hypertension, number of parturition and history of gestational diabetes mellitus. The ROC AUCs were 0.701 and 0.728 in male and female models respectively. During applications in other populations, the sensitivity and specificity of the male model were 86.86% and 65.12% while those of female model 88.89% and 72.97% respectively.

Conclusions: The newly developed evaluation tool for the risk level of abnormal glucose metabolism morbidity in middle-aged and elder populations is both simple and practical. With an excellent practicability; it may be used to screen abnormal glucose metabolism in middle-aged and elder populations.