Incidence and clinical predictors of a subsequent nonmelanoma skin cancer in solid organ transplant recipients with a first nonmelanoma skin cancer: a multicenter cohort study.

Objective: To compare the long-term risk of primary nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and the risk of subsequent NMSC in kidney and heart transplant recipients.

Design: Partially retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Two Italian transplantation centers.

Patients: The study included 1934 patients: 1476 renal transplant recipients and 458 heart transplant recipients.

Main Outcome Measures: Cumulative incidences and risk factors of the first and subsequent NMSCs.

Results: Two hundred patients developed a first NMSC after a median follow-up of 6.8 years after transplantation. The 3-year risk of the primary NMSC was 2.1%. Of the 200 patients with a primary NMSC, 91 (45.5%) had a second NMSC after a median follow-up after the first NMSC of 1.4 years (range, 3 months to 10 years). The 3-year risk of a second NMSC was 32.2%, and it was 49 times higher than that in patients with no previous NMSC. In a Cox proportional hazards regression model, age older than 50 years at the time of transplantation and male sex were significantly related to the first NMSC. Occurrence of the subsequent NMSC was not related to any risk factor considered, including sex, age at transplantation, type of transplanted organ, type of immunosuppressive therapy, histologic type of the first NMSC, and time since diagnosis of the first NMSC. Histologic type of the first NMSC strongly predicted the type of the subsequent NMSC.

Conclusions: Development of a first NMSC confers a high risk of a subsequent NMSC in transplant recipients. Intensive long-term dermatologic follow-up of these patients is advisable.