Trends in disability prevalence over 10 years in older people living in Gloucestershire.

Introduction: life expectancy in the UK appears to be growing faster than healthy life expectancy, which may imply that there are increasing years of disability. There are few sequential studies examining changes in disability amongst older people within a defined locality.

Methods: the population aged 75 and over of 10 general practices in Gloucestershire was surveyed using a validated postal questionnaire for disability called the Elderly At Risk Rating Scale. Surveys were carried out in 1998 and 2008. Age-adjusted disability prevalences were measured. Care home residents were under-represented in the 1998 survey, and missing data was supplied from a countywide census of care home residents in 2000.

Results: response rates of 81 and 74% were achieved. Reductions in disability prevalence were found for mobility, vision and self-care, but there was no significant change in a measure of self-rated health. Higher rates of independence were found in both genders and across the age range in 2008. The improvements suggested that the latter sample was equivalent to subjects being 3.8 years 'younger' than 10 years before and entering dependency on care 2.1 years later.

Discussion: the prevalence of disability affecting activities of daily living appears to have reduced over 10 years in older people in Gloucestershire. If generalisable, these results provide some optimism for current trends in ageing in England.