A simple clinical scale to stratify risk of recurrent falls in community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older.

Background: Correct identification of people at risk for recurrent falls facilitates the establishment of preventive and rehabilitative strategies in older adults.

Objective: The purposes of this study were: (1) to develop and validate a simple clinical scale to stratify risk for recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly people based on easily obtained social and clinical items and (2) to evaluate the added value of 3 clinical balance tests in predicting this risk.

Design: This was a prospective measurement study.

Methods: A population of 1,618 community-dwelling people over 65 years of age underwent a health checkup, including performance of 3 clinical balance tests: the One-Leg-Balance Test, the Timed "Up & Go" Test, and the Five-Times-Sit-to-Stand Test. Falls were recorded using a self-administered questionnaire that was completed a mean (SD) of 25+/-5 months after the visit. Participants were randomly divided into either group A (n=999), which was used to develop the scale, or group B (n=619), which was used to prospectively validate the scale.

Results: Logistic regression analysis identified 4 variables that independently predicted recurrent falls in group A: history of falls, living alone, taking >or=4 medications per day, and female sex. Thereafter, 3 risk categories of recurrent falls (low, moderate, and high) were determined. Predicted probability of recurrent falls increased from 4.1% to 30.1% between the first and third categories. This scale subsequently was validated with great accuracy in group B. Only the Five-Times-Sit-to-Stand Test provided added value in the estimation of risk for recurrent falls, especially for the participants who were at moderate risk, in whom failure on the test (duration of >15 seconds) doubled the risk.

Limitations: Falls were assessed only once, and length of follow-up was heterogeneous (18-36 months).

Conclusions: Clinicians could easily classify older patients in low-, moderate-, or high-risk groups of recurrent falls by using 4 easy-to-obtain items. The Five-Times-Sit-to-Stand Test provides added value to stratify risk for falls in people at moderate risk.