Background: The aim of this study was to develop, from patients' characteristics and radiography, a formula reflecting the decision for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in patients with a painful osteoarthritic knee.
Methods: We reviewed medical records of 193 consecutive patients who had knee osteoarthritis and underwent primary TKA surgery and 133 consecutive patients with knee osteoarthritis who did not have surgery in one institution during the preceding 5 years. Two skeletal radiologists graded, from 0 to 3, radiographic joint space narrowing (JSN), osteophytes, subchondral sclerosis, and subchondral cysts. The association between the variables and outcome were calculated by the chi-squared test and multivariable logistic regression.
Results: Women had more TKAs than men (P = 0.002), and the TKA and non-TKA groups differed in terms of self-care ability (P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in age or body mass index between the two groups. The relevant factors in the reflective formula were age, sex, self-care ability, JSN, and osteophytes in the medial compartment. The retrospective sensitivity and specificity for patients who underwent TKA surgery were 84% and 83%, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy in retrospect evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.92.
Conclusions: A formula reflecting the decision for TKA surgery in patients with a painful osteoarthritic knee has been developed with acceptable diagnostic efficacy obtained retrospectively. The formula should be validated by further study.
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