Predicting post-external beam radiation therapy PSA relapse of prostate cancer using pretreatment MRI.

Purpose: To investigate whether pretreatment endorectal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings can predict biochemical relapse in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT).

Methods And Materials: Between January 2000 and January 2002, 224 patients (median age, 69 years; age range, 45-82 years) with biopsy-proven prostate cancer underwent endorectal MRI before high-dose (≥81Gy) EBRT. The value of multiple clinical and MRI variables in predicting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse at 5 years was determined by use of univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox regression. Clinical variables included pretreatment PSA, clinical T stage, Gleason score, use of neoadjuvant hormonal therapy, and radiation dose. Magnetic resonance imaging variables, derived from retrospective consensus readings by two radiologists, were used to measure intraprostatic and extraprostatic tumor burden.

Results: After a median follow-up of 67 months, PSA relapse developed in 37 patients (16.5%). The significant predictors of PSA relapse on univariate analysis were pretreatment PSA, clinical T stage, and multiple MRI variables, including MRI TN stage score; extracapsular extension (ECE) status; number of sextants involved by ECE, all lesions, or index (dominant) lesion; apical involvement; and diameter and volume of index lesion. Pretreatment PSA and ECE status were the only significant independent predictors on multivariate analysis (p < 0.05 for both). Extracapsular extension status was associated with the highest hazard ratio, 3.04; 5-year PSA relapse rates were 7% for no ECE, 20% for unilateral ECE, and 48% for bilateral ECE.

Conclusions: Magnetic resonance imaging findings can be used to predict post-EBRT PSA relapse, with ECE status on MRI and pretreatment PSA being significant independent predictors of this endpoint.