Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm.

Design: A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005.

Results: The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p<0.0001). Patients with a GAS > or = 90 had a 4-year survival rate of 56.8%, whereas it was 78.5% among those with a lower GAS (p = 0.001). The best cut-off value for the Giles' score was 11 (1.3% vs. 8.3%, p<0.0001). Patients with a Giles' score > or = 11 had a 4-year survival rate of 63.9%, whereas it was 79.0% among those with a lower score (p = 0.016).

Conclusions: The GAS and Giles' risk scoring methods are good predictors of poor immediate and late outcome after EVAR.