Transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: survival rate and prognostic factors.

Background: The role of prognostic variables in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is controversial.

Aims: To evaluate the survival of patients with HCC on cirrhosis treated with TACE and to analyse the prognostic factors affecting survival.

Methods: From 1996 to 2006, 580 consecutive patients with HCC in cirrhosis were observed. Of these 194 patients underwent TACE. The primary end-point was survival. Independent predictors of survival were identified using the Cox model.

Results: The cumulative 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 96%, 60%, and 41%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed significant reduction of survival among patients with serum bilirubin values >2mg/dl compared to patients with values <2mg/dl (Hazard ratio 3.84; CI 95% 1.70-8.66; p-value=0.001). Multivariate analysis performed in the group of patients treated with TACE alone showed that elevated serum bilirubin (Hazard ratio 2.96; CI 95% 1.20-7.3; p-value 0.02) and incomplete tumour response (Hazard ratio 2.88; CI 95% 1.18-7.05; p-value 0.02) are correlated with a worse outcome.

Conclusions: TACE was well tolerated and overall survival rate was 41% after 5 years. Complete tumour response and serum bilirubin <2mg/dl were identified as predictors of survival.