Setting a goal to reduce teen births in Milwaukee by 2015.

Introduction: Although teen birth rates have declined significantly since 1991, teen pregnancy remains a significant public health problem in Milwaukee, Wis. Using historical teen birth data trends, this study sets a birth rate reduction goal by the year 2015 for Milwaukee teenagers between the ages of 15 and 17.

Methods: Birth counts and birth rates for teenagers between the ages of 15 and 17 were obtained from the Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health (WISH). Trend analyses were performed on teen birth rate data gathered between 1991 and 2006 in an effort to forecast and set a birth rate goal for the year 2015.

Results/discussion: Trend analyses yielded a predicted birth rate projection of 35.9 (Adjusted R2 = .95, P < .001) births per 1000 females. Using the exponential function estimate as well as national and state goals, Milwaukee community leaders set a feasible goal of 30 births per 1000 teens aged 15-17 years for the year 2015, which represents a 46% reduction of the 2006 rate of 55/1000.