AI Article Synopsis
- A new model is introduced to analyze how mountain pine beetle outbreaks affect forests by tracking changes in tree vigor, or health, over time.
- The model uses real-world data to determine various parameters, with a key aspect being how tree mortality drastically increases at certain beetle densities.
- Results from the model show a range of possible outcomes from complete destruction of the forest in one year to minimal impact, and an extension of the model explores how beetles might gather together in a random, unpredictable way.
Article Abstract
A vigor-structured model for mountain pine beetle outbreak dynamics within a forest stand is proposed and analyzed. This model explicitly tracks the changing vigor structure in the stand. All model parameters, other than beetle vigor preference, were determined by fitting model components to empirical data. An abrupt threshold for tree mortality to beetle densities allows for model simplification. Based on initial beetle density, model outcomes vary from decimation of the entire stand in a single year, to inability of the beetles to infect any trees. An intermediate outcome involves an initial infestation which subsequently dies out before the entire stand is killed. A model extension is proposed for dynamics of beetle aggregation. This involves a stochastic formulation.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-009-9461-3 | DOI Listing |
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