A simple model for screening the local impacts of atmospheric ammonia.

The dry deposition of ammonia from the atmosphere to the surface can lead to eutrophication of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. A large proportion of the ammonia emitted from agricultural sources can be deposited within a few kilometres and, therefore, impacts of ammonia dry deposition often occur near to the source. To assess these impacts, short-range atmospheric dispersion models are often applied to simulate the emission, dispersion and deposition of ammonia. However, these models can be time-consuming to run and often require detailed input data and, therefore, for multiple assessments it is useful to have a method of screening to discard scenarios where impacts are expected to be negligible. The SCAIL model (Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits) has been developed for this purpose. SCAIL estimates the atmospheric concentration and dry deposition at the nearest edge of a sensitive ecosystem (receptor) downwind of an ammonia source. These estimates are calculated based on simple meteorological data, the emission rate of the source, land cover type and distance to the receptor. Analysis of the model predictions showed that uncertainty in the model input data leads to an uncertainty in concentration and dry deposition estimates of 25-30% and 40-45% respectively. Detailed atmospheric dispersion models will also have similar uncertainties since they use similar types of input data. Comparison of the concentration predictions with previous measurements made around eight farms showed that the model significantly underestimated concentrations although the model performance was similar to existing screening techniques. The measurement dataset was used to calibrate the SCAIL model which subsequently performed better, using independent verification data, than existing models calibrated in a similar way. The benefits of the SCAIL model are already being seen in the UK, where it is used to screen farms for potential impacts on statutory nature conservation areas.