Prediction of clinical outcome of radiation accident victims.

On the basis of the analysis of more than 350 individuals that were exposed to ionizing radiation in the course of more than 25 radiation accidents reported world wide since 1945, a biomathematical computer model was developed that simulates the pattern of granulocyte changes seen. It allows one to calculate the number of stem cells remaining intact to initiate recovery. It is shown that the major question to be asked is whether a spontaneous stem cell recovery can be expected or not. This question can be readily answered within 3-5 days after radiation exposure on the basis of the constellation of hematopoietic findings and devised stem cell pool size calculations.