Early childhood refractive error and parental history of myopia as predictors of myopia.

Purpose: To determine the utility of a child's first grade refractive error and parental history of myopia as predictors of myopia onset between the second and eighth grades.

Methods: Subjects were nonmyopic children in the first grade who were enrolled in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study. Myopia was defined as -0.75 D or more myopia in both meridians (by cycloplegic autorefraction). The children were classified as having a high (versus low) risk of myopia with a cycloplegic sphere cutoff of +0.75 D or less (versus more) of hyperopia. Parental myopia was determined by a parent-completed survey. Discrete-time survival models predicted the risk of myopia.

Results: Of the 1854 nonmyopic first graders, 21.3% were at high risk of myopia. More high-risk subjects had two myopic parents, 25.4% compared with 16.5% in the low-risk group (P < 0.0001). The low-risk survival function was similar regardless of the number of myopic parents. Among high-risk eighth graders, the survival probability was lower than in the low-risk group, decreasing with an increase in the number of myopic parents. The sensitivity and specificity of first grade refractive error with the number of myopic parents as predictors for myopia onset were 62.5% and 81.9%, respectively.

Conclusions: First grade refractive error and the number of myopic parents can predict a child's risk of myopia; however, because the sensitivity of these factors is low, these two predictors may not be sufficient at this young age when a more accurate prediction of myopia onset is needed.