Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106 | DOI Listing |
Sci Total Environ
January 2025
Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland.
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School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, PR China.
Extreme precipitation is a crucial trigger for soil erosion events in karst regions. However, the existence of a scale effect in suspended sediment characteristics of karst basins and which extreme precipitation variables control this effect remain unclear. To investigate this, we analyzed the scale effect on suspended sediment characteristics using monthly hydrological data from five karst basins of varying scales, consistently monitored from 2012 to 2019.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
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University of Washington Herbarium (WTU), Burke Museum, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
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Biological Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas. 7001 Australia.
Elevated atmospheric CO2 (e[CO2]) often enhances plant photosynthesis and improves water status. However, the effects of e[CO2] vary significantly and are believed to be influenced by water availability. With the future warmer climate expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall, the response of plants to e[CO2] under changing precipitation patterns remains uncertain.
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