The value of procalcitonin at predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and development of infected pancreatic necrosis: systematic review.

Background: Many studies have evaluated serum levels of procalcitonin (PCT) as a predictor in the development of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). This study assesses the value of PCT as a marker of development of SAP and IPN.

Methods: Medline, Web of Science, the Cochrane clinical trials register, and international conference proceedings were searched systematically for prospective studies, which evaluated the usefulness of PCT as a marker of SAP and IPN. The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated for each study, and the study quality and heterogeneity among the studies were evaluated.

Results: Twenty-four of 59 studies identified were included in data extraction. The sensitivity and specificity of PCT for development of SAP were 0.72 and 0.86, respectively (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.87; DOR = 14.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.6-39.8), albeit with a significant degree of heterogeneity (Q = 28.56, P < .01). The sensitivity and specificity of PCT for prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis were 0.80 and 0.91 (AUC = 0.91; DOR = 28.3; 95% CI = 13.8-58.3) with no significant heterogeneity (Q = 7.83, P = .18). No significant heterogeneity was observed among the studies when only higher quality studies (AUC = 0.91; DOR = 30.7; 95% CI = 10.7-87.8) or studies that used a cutoff PCT level >0.5 ng/mL (AUC = 0.88, 32.8; 95% CI = 10.1-106.6) were included.

Conclusion: Serum measurements of PCT may be valuable in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and the risk of developing infected pancreatic necrosis.