The risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in human breath-hold diving is expected to increase as dives progress deeper until a depth is reached where total lung collapse stops additional nitrogen gas uptake. We assembled a database of all documented human breath-hold dives to 100 metres or greater, including both practice and record dives. Between 1976 and 2006 there were 192 such dives confirmed by 24 divers (18 male, 6 female). The deepest dive was to 209 metres. There were two drowning fatalities, and two cases ofDCS. Depth-time risk estimates for DCS were derived for single breath-hold dives by modifying probabilistic decompression models calibrated with data from short deep no-stop air dives and submarine escape trials using maximum-likelihood estimation. Arterial nitrogen levels during apnea were adjusted for lung compression and decreased cardiac output. Predicted DCS risk is negligible up to about 100 metres, beyond which risk increases nonlinearly and reaches a plateau around 5 to 7 percent when total lung collapse occurs beyond 230 metres. Results are consistent with data available from deep breath-hold dives.
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