The value of HLA-DRB1 shared epitope, -308 tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene promoter polymorphism, rheumatoid factor, anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies, and early erosions for predicting radiological outcome in recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis.

Objective: To study the value of HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (SE), -308 tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) gene promoter polymorphism, rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), and baseline erosions for predicting radiological outcome at 1 year in patients with recent-onset rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods: Radiological damage was assessed by radiographs at baseline and at 1 year in an inception cohort of 134 RA patients with disease duration
Results: The SvdH erosion score increased from the baseline visit to the 1-year visit in 49 patients (36.6%). In multiple linear regression analysis, radiological outcome was significantly predicted by SE homozygosity (beta coefficient 1.75; 95% CI 1.54, 2.96; p=0.005) and baseline SvdH erosion score (beta coefficient 1.56; 95% CI 1.4, 1.71; p<0.001). This model explained 78% of the variability of the dependent variable (R2=0.779).

Conclusion: Erosive damage at 1 year in patients with recent-onset RA is significantly influenced by SE homozygosity and the presence of baseline erosions, but not by RF status, anti-CCP status, or -308 TNF-alpha genotype.