The decline in mortality from circulatory diseases in Brazil.

Objectives: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in the world. Although mortality rates have declined gradually in developed countries, the scenario is less clear in developing countries. We describe the trends in cardiovascular mortality in Brazil over 24 years and investigate differences according to groups of diseases, sociopolitical region, gender, and age.

Methods: We retrieved official data on mortality and population estimates to calculate standardized mortality rates in six age strata and in the five political regions from 1980 through 2003. The negative binomial distribution model was used to estimate trends for mortality separately for each gender, age group, and geopolitical region during this period.

Results: Total cardiovascular standardized mortality rates decreased consistently over 24 years, from 287.3 to 161.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, with a mean annual decrease of 3.9%. Reductions in cardiovascular standardized mortality rates were detected in all strata and for all groups of diseases, with stroke exhibiting the largest average decline, from 95.2 to 52.6 per 100,000 inhabitants (mean 4.0% per year), followed by coronary disease, from 80.3 to 49.2 per 100,000 inhabitants (3.6% per year); the decrease was especially marked in the most developed regions.

Conclusions: Cardiovascular disease standardized mortality rates consistently decreased in Brazil during the study period. The reduction is apparently related to indices of increasing social development. Despite these encouraging findings, a gradual increase in the deaths from cardiovascular disease is expected in the next decades, and additional efforts in prevention are needed.