The effect of vaccination on undetected persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds and sheep flocks.

The importance of carrier animals (those in whom virus persists after recovery from disease or acute infection) and their potential role in the spread of disease remain open questions within foot-and-mouth disease epidemiology. Using simple probabilistic models we attempt to quantify the effect of emergency vaccination--and especially the time of application--on the likely number of such animals, using data from challenge experiments on both cattle and sheep to determine the probability of persistence in diseased and subclinically infected animals. We show that the number of persistently infected animals in a group is predominantly determined by the number of animals initially infected on premises--the high variability of which ultimately limits the accuracy of any predictions of carrier numbers based upon transmission models. Furthermore, results suggest that, within a cattle herd, carrier numbers may be increased if challenge occurs shortly after vaccination. We show that the quality of inspection is the principal factor influencing whether or not carrier herds occur and that, by reducing clinical signs, the application of vaccination in regularly checked stock also results in an increase in undetected persistently infected animals. Where clinical detection would be poor regardless of the use of vaccination (i.e. particularly in sheep), vaccination will result in a reduction in the probability of a group containing undetected carriers: otherwise there is a benefit only if vaccination is applied sufficiently far in advance of any challenge. The implications of the results for serosurveillance are discussed, including the requisite test sensitivity and practices for successful implementation.